Predicting the next mass shooting: do people just “snap”?

bigstock-Mental-illness-in-word-collage-072313WESTBOROUGH, MA January 21, 2018  Do people just “snap”? Rarely according to most literature I have read and published. The expression of violence is elicited slowly following a prolonged period of marginalized aloneness along with underlying resentment and anger according to Michael Sefton, Ph.D. This takes a great toll on relationships, loss of trust and a growing persecutory narrative that may become delusional.  The gunman in the Las Vegas mass homicide was described as narcissistic – a personality disorder vulnerable perceived rejection or disrespect often resulting in sudden rage, denial, decreased rational thinking, accusatory blaming, and often marked denial of responsibility. In the Las Vegas shooting it has been learned that the gunman had recently sustained a significant financial loss although its link to the people he killed remains a mystery.  There is typically some specific event that may trigger a violent event that could have been planned over months or years and evolve like the expression of some genetic permutation.

“People do not just “snap.” When something horrible happens, like a murder or violent attack, we naturally look for a cause. “Snapping” is an easy way to describe what is actually a complex, yet understandable chain of events. Research into violent attacks and the behavior of the attackers can shed some light on how one moves down a pathway toward violence.” Swink, 2010

The capacity for behavioral science to predict when the next mass shooting will occur remains unrefined. Yet, by studying the cases of mass murder that have occurred in the past 5 years there are important pre-incident behaviors that may foreshadow a coming terminal event. Often there are people who know precisely what is going to happen.  In our study of a domestic violence homicide that took place in Maine, 2011 we were told by the aunt of the murderer that she expected her nephew to kill himself but expect that he would do it in front of his wife and children.  What ultimately happened was a murder suicide.  Steven Lake killed his wife and 2 children and made an attempt to incinerate their bodies before local police arrived.  At that point he made himself comfortable and ended his life and the Lake family timeline.


Swink, J (2010) The Pentagon Shooting: They Don’t “Just Snap” Posted Mar 06, 2010 Taken Jan 4, 2018

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